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Orders for U.S. durable merchandise are expected to contract 2.5% in April and the fall in private sector consumption is likely to initiate a bearish response in the greenback as the prospect for future growth deteriorates. However, as there seems to be a key shift in risk-taking tendencies, a unsatisfactory release may bear down upon market emotion, leading to a bullish greenback reaction as it benefits from safe-haven flows.
Nevertheless, the continuing weakness in the real economic climate may lead the Federal Reserve continuing a zero interest rate policy for almost all of 2011, and Chairman Ben Bernanke might continue to talk down rumours for a rate hike this year in order to stimulate a maintainable recovery.
The recovery in household sentiment combined with the faster rate of wage growth ought to help to encourage a surge in consumption, and the Fed may boost its economic review as growth and inflation collects tempo. However, as Us citizens face higher energy prices, families and companies may perhaps control their willingness to spending, and the ongoing weakness in the private sector might lead the central bank to support the real economy during the entire second-half of the year as it endeavors to balance the downside risks for the region.
Though the Fed intends to end its easing cycle in June, the committee might maintain a wait-and-see procedure for most of 2011, and dovish responses from Bernanke is probably going to bear down on the forex rate as interest rate anticipation falter.
Currency trading the supplied event risk supports a bearish perspective for the reserve currency as private sector consumption falters, nevertheless an enhanced durable goods report may set the stage for a long U.S. dollar trade as growth prospects strengthen. For that reason, a fall less than 1.0% or unexpectedly increase from the prior month, we are going to want a red, five-minute signal candlestick after the release to create sell signals on the EUR/USD.
Once this precondition is attained, we shall established the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a sensible range after taking market volatility into account, and this risk will create our first currency trading profit target. The second target depends on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the initial trade reaches its mark in an effort to lock-in our earnings.
Nevertheless, the continuing weakness in the real economic climate may lead the Federal Reserve continuing a zero interest rate policy for almost all of 2011, and Chairman Ben Bernanke might continue to talk down rumours for a rate hike this year in order to stimulate a maintainable recovery.
The recovery in household sentiment combined with the faster rate of wage growth ought to help to encourage a surge in consumption, and the Fed may boost its economic review as growth and inflation collects tempo. However, as Us citizens face higher energy prices, families and companies may perhaps control their willingness to spending, and the ongoing weakness in the private sector might lead the central bank to support the real economy during the entire second-half of the year as it endeavors to balance the downside risks for the region.
Though the Fed intends to end its easing cycle in June, the committee might maintain a wait-and-see procedure for most of 2011, and dovish responses from Bernanke is probably going to bear down on the forex rate as interest rate anticipation falter.
Currency trading the supplied event risk supports a bearish perspective for the reserve currency as private sector consumption falters, nevertheless an enhanced durable goods report may set the stage for a long U.S. dollar trade as growth prospects strengthen. For that reason, a fall less than 1.0% or unexpectedly increase from the prior month, we are going to want a red, five-minute signal candlestick after the release to create sell signals on the EUR/USD.
Once this precondition is attained, we shall established the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a sensible range after taking market volatility into account, and this risk will create our first currency trading profit target. The second target depends on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the initial trade reaches its mark in an effort to lock-in our earnings.
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